We Re-Drafted the 2018 NBA Draft, and Guess Who’s No. 1 Now

Despite the incredible amount of time and resources that goes into scouting the college and international games, preparing for the NBA Draft will always be an imperfect process. Scouts have a hard job: They obsess over film and dedicate their lives to psychoanalyzing 19-year-olds. But you can never really know how well a player will translate to the NBA.

Exhibit A: Just 20 months after the 76ers selected Markelle Fultz No. 1 overall in the 2017 draft (he was supposed to be the next James Harden!), Fultz had massive issues with his shooting form and numerous shoulder injuries before Philly traded him. Fultz’s performance in his first season and a half hardly warranted selection in the lottery, let alone the No. 1 pick. The Sixers will (deservedly) get flack from their fans for whiffing on Fultz for years to come since they missed the opportunity to add a franchise-changer like Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell.

When we conducted our first NBA re-draft last year, Fultz fell to No. 11. And Mitchell, who slipped all the way to No. 13 on draft night, claimed our top position, with Tatum right behind him.

So, what about this year? If Phoenix had the chance to re-do its decision at No. 1, would the Suns stick with Deandre Ayton or select differently? Which player would be the biggest riser of all? Who would plummet?

Read on to find out.

For the sake of clarity, we’ll assume all pre-draft pick swaps happened exactly the same way (meaning trades that happened after the picks were made are invalidated). In this hypothetical scenario, as each team goes on the clock, they find out everything we know now.

Start the countdown for Phoenix…here comes Adam Silver...

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 3

Change: +2

Stats: 20.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.5 APG, 19.4 PER

Actual Pick: Deandre Ayton

It seemed curious—at best—that Doncic fell to No. 3 on draft night, and it seems downright asinine now. The 19-year-old Slovenian was one of the better guards in the NBA from the first time he stepped on the court. He has flourished as the Mavericks’ go-to option, and the team is building around him, as evidenced by the team dealing its 2017 first-round pick, Dennis Smith Jr.—who wasn’t a perfect fit beside Luka—to the Knicks. Luka is a hot-and-cold 3-point shooter, but he affects games even when he can’t shoot. He’s also the second-youngest player in league history to log a triple-double. Doncic has Rookie of the Year in the bag.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 1

Change: -1

Stats: 16.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 0.9 BPG, 20.99 PER

Actual Pick: Marvin Bagley III

This is a tough one. The Kings are encouraged with the development of Marvin Bagley III, their original draft pick, and you could make a case that he should go here. You could also make a case for fellow big man Jaren Jackson Jr., who’s been great. Trae Young wouldn’t be a fit as the Kings have their backcourt of the future in De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. But Ayton has done just enough to warrant a top-two pick. He leads all rookies in Player Efficiency Rating, and he’s shooting an impressive 59 percent from the field. Ayton should become more valuable now that the Suns have Tyler Johnson in the backcourt, freeing up Devin Booker to head to the wing.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 5

Change: +2

Stats: 16.8 PPG, 7.4 APG, 31.4 percent 3FG, 14.51 PER

Actual Pick: Luka Doncic

We’ve seen the good, bad, and ugly from Young this season—but for the most part, he’s been good. And he’s gotten better. Hawks fans should feel great about the fact that the Oklahoma product is not shooting the ball well but is still making a difference on the court; he’s shown he’s far from a one-dimensional player. He recently had a five-game scoring stretch of 30, 26, 23, 28, and 27 points. He’s coming into his own and looks like the franchise PG for whom Travis Schlenk was hoping. Unfortunately for Young, he’ll eternally be compared to Doncic, as the two were traded for each other on draft night. But the Hawks got a first-round pick out of it, which should level the deal. Atlanta happily re-picks its budding young point guard.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 4

Change: +0

Stats: 13.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 17.1 PER

Actual Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jackson was the appropriate pick on draft night, and he still is. He’s shown his versatility, knocking down 35.3 percent of his 3-point attempts. At age 19, the 6’11” Michigan State product still has so much room to develop. His promise made Memphis comfortable enough to deal franchise cornerstone Marc Gasol to Toronto. Scouts were wary of Jackson’s limited experience entering the draft—he only spent one season with the Spartans, and his college numbers weren’t all that impressive—but he got off to a big start and, playing 26.1 MPG, looks like a future All-Star. With Gasol gone, Jackson should get even more burn down the stretch. Memphis was worried Jackson would be off the board in this re-draft; GM Chris Wallace is thrilled to repeat his pick.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 2

Change: -3

Stats: 13.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 17.82 PER

Actual Pick: Trae Young

Moving down doesn’t seem fair to Bagley, and it probably isn’t. His performance hasn’t warranted a drop, especially of late. He’s coming into his own as a blossoming star in Sacramento. In a recent game against Phoenix, he hung 32 points on 10-for-15 shooting in 32 minutes. The 19-year-old can ball, period—we knew he was basically pro-ready based on one season at Duke. He received criticism as a so-so defender, but he’s been better than expected on the defensive end, and he’s a flat-out force offensively. You could argue Bagley should go as high as No. 2 in a re-draft...and you might be right. But we’re sticking with the others ahead of Bagley for now, based on their ceilings. Dallas is heartbroken to have lost Luka Doncic, but the Mavs add another versatile, dynamic big to pair with Kristaps Porzingis.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 19

Change: +13

Stats: 9.4 PPG, 2.8 APG, 39.3% 3FG, 10.03 PER

Actual Pick: Mo Bamba

We have “red velvet” moving all the way up to No. 6. When Atlanta picked Huerter out of Maryland, pairing him with Trae Young, z came from Golden State—was hoping to form a Splash Brothers 2.0. No pairing can touch that of Steph and Klay, but both Young and Huerter have been phenomenal. Huerter, 6-foot-7, is second among rookies in 3-point percentage (trailing only Landry Shamet), and he’s sixth among rookies in assists. Some have even suggested Huerter may be better than Young. We wouldn’t go that far, but Huerter has definitely shown he deserved to be picked near the top of the draft. The Magic need a good shooter to play alongside newly acquired Markelle Fultz, and they get a great one.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 7

Change: +0

Stats: 10.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 15.32 PER

Actual Pick: Wendell Carter Jr.

Carter is out right now after having thumb surgery, and he might not appear again for the rest of the season, but it should tell you something that the Bulls were willing to deal Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker at the deadline. With Carter and Lauri Markkanen, Chicago should have its frontcourt of the future. Carter’s PER is sixth-best among rookies, and his rebounding average and rebounding rate of 15.1 are both third. He has an effective all-around game, and he’s one of the most effective passing bigs in this class. Carter has been exactly as expected, and Chicago gladly takes him again.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 9

Change: +1

Stats: 12.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 33.6% 3FG, 8.37 PER

Actual Pick: Collin Sexton

Knox is another guy who’s been up and down, as many rookies tend to be. He’s shooting alright from outside (the league average is 35.5 percent), but he’s struggling inside the arc and shooting only 36.6 percent from the field (the league average is 46.1 percent). Knox has had plenty of opportunity with the woeful Knicks, playing 28.5 MPG and starting for New York since mid-December. It’s easy to forget that Knox, who won’t turn 20 until August, was one the younger players at the top of his class. The Cavs are looking for offense from somewhere (anywhere!), and they get plenty of it from Knox.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 10

Change: +1

Stats: 8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 11.21 PER

Actual Pick: Kevin Knox

Bridges isn’t here because of his offensive ability, though he’s been fine in that domain. He’s the best defender in this class. He leads all rookies in steals by a huge margin, and he’s also in the top 10 in blocks. Bridges has shown the ability to strap up on the perimeter. The 22-year-old Villanova product has impressed the Suns with his maturity. His coach, Igor Kokoskov, recently said Bridges is the “most reliable defensive player on our team.” And he’s shot well from outside, too (35.5 percent 3FG). He should be a top-flight 3-and-D guy for years to come. The Knicks will rely on the newly acquired Dennis Smith Jr. for scoring, and they’re hoping to add two more big offensive weapons in free agency this summer. They need complementary pieces and Bridges is the perfect role player.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 11

Change: +1

Stats: 10.1 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.7 RPG, 12.37 PER

Actual Pick: Mikal Bridges

Gilgeous-Alexander impressed his NBA brethren early in the season. “His mid-range is so good,” Kevin Durant said of the rookie. “He's probably the guy that stood out the most because I never watched him in college...he got confidence in him.” One of the few rookies to play in all of his team’s games this season, the Kentucky product has played a lot from the jump, starting every game since early November. With Gilgeous-Alexander and newly acquired Landry Shamet, Doc Rivers has a budding young backcourt. At 6’6” with a 6’11” wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander has the potential to become a strong defender, too. Philly is just looking for the best available player, so the Sixers take SGA.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 6

Change: -5

Stats: 6.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 15.03 PER

Actual Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Bamba was always expected to be a project when he entered the league, and that much has proven true early in his first season. He’s mostly come off the bench for Orlando but has been out since late January with a leg injury. Bamba is not an offensive weapon at this point; his season-high for points is 15, and he’s only attempted double-digit shots in two games. You’d also like to see his 48 percent field-goal mark improve. But he’s shown the potential to be a real defensive threat. Bamba is third among rookies in blocks and second in defensive rebounding rate, trailing only DeAndre Ayton. The Hornets aren’t contending for an NBA title anytime soon, so they should have the patience to wait for Bamba to come into his own.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 8

Change: -4

Stats: 14.9 PPG, 2.8 APG, 39.2% 3FG, 10.35 PER

Actual Pick: Miles Bridges

Sexton continues to improve as a 3-point shooter, surprising the scouts who knocked his outside shooting ability. Sexton has been one of the best 3-point shooters and free throw shooters in this class. But he's shooting nearly as well from beyond the arc (39.2 percent) as he is from 2-point range (41.1 percent), as he hasn’t found his touch in the midrange and at the rim. He's also averaging 2.2 turnovers per game, third-most among rookies. With 30.2 MPG, he’s gotten the fourth-most minutes of any rookie, and he’s started practically the entire season. Kevin Love recently said Sexton is "just trying to break habits" but "he's been able to show a lot of bright spots.” He’s a work in progress, but the Clippers pick him up because they need a PG of the future after missing out on SGA.

Where He Went on Draft Night: Undrafted

Change: +A lot

Stats: 10.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 38.2% 3FG, 11.73 PER

Actual Pick: Jerome Robinson

Trier makes the biggest leap of any player in this draft. He didn’t hear his name called during June’s event, but he quickly made it clear that was a mistake. He signed with the Knicks on a two-way contract, splitting time between New York and the G League squad in Westchester, but dropped 15 in his NBA debut. Shortly thereafter, he had a 25-point game. The Knicks wisely locked him up at that point. He recently dropped 31 on 12-of-18 shooting while battling with James Harden. Trier has explosive scoring ability, which was evident when he was at Arizona, but he was overshadowed in his final season by Deandre Ayton and was hurt by his suspension for testing positive for PEDs. The Clippers already have a good offense and good young backcourt, but they’re too enamored with Trier’s scoring potential to pass on him.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 14

Change: +0

Stats: N/A

Actual Pick: Michael Porter Jr.

People were speculating MPJ could go as high as No. 1 entering his freshman year at Missouri, but he ended up slipping to end of the lottery because of concerns about his long-term health. He played only three games in college, but the Nuggets picked him up because they were willing to wait out his recovery from back problems. Denver has said MPJ might see the court this season, but that seems like a long shot given the Nuggets’ success without him. With his tantalizing potential, MPJ still belongs in the top half of the draft.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 12

Change: -3

Stats: 6.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 12.14 PER

Actual Pick: Troy Brown Jr.

The 20-year-old former Spartan has come off the bench for first-year coach James Borrego. Bridges started off strong and even once got 30 minutes of PT, but his role in the Hornets’ rotation has been somewhat inconsistent, though he’s shown plenty of promise. Bridges is a monster athlete, as evidenced by his participation in the Dunk Contest. He may not be a star, but he will be a solid starter, like a young Josh Smith. The Wizards, not in need of another guard but looking for consistent role players, pick up Bridges to replace Otto Porter Jr. in the rotation.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 26

Change: +10

Stats: 8.3 PPG, 1.1 APG, 41.4% 3FG, 11.41 PER

Actual Pick: Zhaire Smith

You could definitely make a case Shamet should go higher. He’s been truly impressive as a rookie after lighting it up at Wichita State. Shamet is arguably the best shooter in this class, and, at 21 years old, he came into the league ready to play. Shamet is shooting pretty well from downtown, good for top 20 in the league, but Philly surrendered him as part of the Tobias Harris deal. The Suns now have Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, and Landry Shamet—quite an impressive young core in the backcourt. Shamet isn’t a perfect fit in Phoenix, but he’s too good to pass up.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 20

Change: +3

Stats: 7.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 8.0 PER

Actual Pick: Donte DiVincenzo

Okogie is an exceptional athlete, he plays super hard, and he’s versatile. Okogie brings enthusiasm to the court; he’s fun to watch and deservedly garnered a spot in the Rising Stars Game. He would be a 3-and-D candidate if he could figure out the ‘3’ part. He’s shooting an uninspiring 25.7 percent from downtown, but at least he’s trying; he’s jacking three 3s per game. Okogie is playing 22.5 MPG for Ryan Saunders’ squad and, thanks to his great defense, has been in the starting lineup since the start of the new year. Mike Budenholzer & Co. opt for the best player available.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 16

Change: -2

Stats: N/A

Actual Pick: Lonnie Walker

Smith, like MPJ, has not played yet this year. In August, he broke his foot and underwent surgery. He's another guy who didn't put up monster stats in his lone college season but was drafted based on potential. The 6-foot-4 19-year-old is a strong athlete and made the Big 12's All-Defensive Team. The Spurs have been far better on offense than defense this season. With a chance for a do-over, they stick with their selection of a guard, but think defense first.

Where He Went on Draft Night: Undrafted

Change: +A lot

Stats: 5.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 35.4% 3FG, 19.5 PER

Actual Pick: Kevin Huerter

Williams is the second undrafted player to appear on this list. Williams turned into a real weapon for New Orleans when Anthony Davis took some time off. In a recent game against the Nuggets, he had 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting and added eight rebounds and three assists. The game before that, he had eight points and 16 rebounds. At 24, he came in ready to ball out from day one. The Hawks are devastated to lose Huerter, but they get a good swing big to pair with John Collins.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 40

Change: +20

Stats: 8.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.7 APG, 13.7 PER

Actual Pick: Josh Okogie

Kurucs is another huge climber. He wasn’t seeing the court much early in the season, but the 6’9”, 21-year-old Latvian has turned into a consistent starter for the upstart Nets, playing 20.9 MPG on the season. He’s had a couple 24-point games and has flashed plenty of potential as a future 3-and-D standout. The T-Wolves, looking for some defense to complement Andrew Wiggins, add a guy with a 7’2” wingspan who’s just coming into his own and was one of the steals of the real 2018 draft.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 36

Change: +15

Stats: 6.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 20.45 PER

Actual Pick: Grayson Allen

Robinson has the second-best PER of any rookie, trailing only Ayton. The 7’1” center wasn't all that well-known in most circles because he never played college basketball (due to some weird circumstances) and didn't participate in the NBA Draft Combine. Nonetheless, the 2017 McDonald's All-American showed immediately that he belongs in the NBA. He set Summer League records for blocks and offensive rebounds before the Knicks rewarded him with a multi-year contract. Then, early in the season, Robinson had nine blocks in one game. This dude is an elite shot-blocker; the Jazz, lacking frontcourt depth, bring him in to learn under Rudy Gobert.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 33

Change: +11

Stats: 6.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 35.2% 3FG, 10.63 PER

Actual Pick: Chandler Hutchison

We all knew Brunson could hoop when he was coming out of Villanova; the son of Rick Brunson was a two-time NCAA champ and the 2017-18 Naismith Player of the Year. Scouts had him pegged as a late first-round talent, but he slipped into the early second round. Brunson was battling with Dennis Smith Jr. for playing time, and his rookie success is part of the reason Dallas felt comfortable dealing Smith. The Bulls get a capable guard to back up Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 23

Change: +0

Stats: 5.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 RPG, 12.19 PER

Actual Pick: Aaron Holiday

Holiday’s stats don’t jump out at you, and he has not shot the ball well at all (only 38.2 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from deep). But his PER is 12th-best among rookies, and Jrue’s younger brother is looking better as the season wears on. He has only averaged 11.8 MPG, but with Victor Oladipo out, he’s now getting more opportunity. In a recent blowout win over the Lakers, Holiday had 17 points on 7-for-10 shooting including 3-for-4 from beyond the 3-point line. The Pacers are content to stick with their original pick.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 30

Change: +6

Stats: 5.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 0.6 BPG, 12.21 PER

Actual Pick: Anfernee Simons

Spellman had an opportunity to start early in the season, but Lloyd Pierce opted to bring him off the bench. He’s still finding his way and needs to improve defensively, but the 6’9” reigning NCAA champ has shown potential as a big man who can step out and shoot it. The Blazers could use some youth at the 3 and 4 spots, and Spellman would contend for minutes as Portland jockeys for a top seed in the West.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 20

Change: -5

Stats: 2.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 0.65 PER

Actual Pick: Moritz Wagner

Walker hasn’t shown anything in his rookie year...but he hasn’t had much opportunity. Gregg Popovich is taking his time easing the former Miami Hurricane onto the court after undergoing knee surgery before the season started. Walker has played in only six games, and he's averaging only 3.5 shot attempts in that limited action. He got to play 26 minutes in a blowout loss to the Warriors, but he went 0-for-10 from the field. It’s still too early to make conclusions about Walker. The Lakers take Walker on as a project to potentially fill a void if Lonzo Ball/Josh Hart are traded to acquire Anthony Davis.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 22

Change: -4

Stats: 5.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 8.86 PER

Actual Pick: Landry Shamet

Hutchison suffered a foot injury right when he was finding his stride. He’s had a rocky rookie season but has seen 33 and 41 minutes of action in recent games. In the latter of those two against the Clippers, the 6'7" small forward put up 12 points and 12 boards. The Sixers go for a swingman to back up and learn under Jimmy Butler.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 34

Change: +7

Stats: 4.4 PPG, 2.1 APG, 0.6 SPG, 11.08 PER

Actual Pick: Robert Williams

Graham was an offensive machine at Kansas and has done some good things in a limited role with the Hornets. He spent some time in the G League, but there was one stretch in January in which he had four straight games of double-digit scoring with the Hornets, getting over 20 minutes of action in each of those games. The Celtics, knowing their point guard options (Kyrie Irving and Terry Rozier) are in flux, look for a bit of insurance.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 13

Change: -15

Stats: 3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 35% 3FG, 7.4 PER

Actual Pick: Jacob Evans

The former Boston College standout was the last pick of the lottery. He’s been in and out of the G League. He recently got 28 minutes for the Clippers, scoring seven points on an uninspiring 2-for-13 shooting including 1-for-6 from deep, but he added five steals, three assists, and two rebounds. The Warriors have the patience to wait on a project, and they love tall guards who can shoot and play D (think Klay Thompson or Andre Iguodala), so they opt for Robinson, who could’ve gone a bit higher.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 17

Change: -12

Stats: 4.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 8.56 PER

Actual Pick: Dzanan Musa

The “Big Ragu” saw his stock soar after a monster performance for Villanova in the Final Four. He's only played in 23 games this season as he’s dealt with a heel injury that has plagued him since early January. He has not shot the ball well from any part of the floor, but this is another pick based on potential. He’s a smooth athlete with scoring chops. The Nets bring him in to learn under D’Angelo Russell.

Where He Went on Draft Night: No. 21

Change: -9

Stats: 4.1 PPG, 0.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 4.67 PER

Actual Pick: Omari Spellman

Allen looked great at Summer League, and he seemed to bond instantly with Donovan Mitchell, so it appeared the four-year Duke standout would be ready to contribute in the league immediately. That hasn’t exactly been the case; Allen has been in and out of the Jazz lineup, and he typically only gets a few minutes a night. Nonetheless, the aggressive guard has the makeup of a potential rotation guy. The Hawks bring in Allen to help fill their void at the 2.

Biggest Climbers: Allonzo Trier (undrafted to No. 13), Kenrich Williams (undrafted to No. 19), Rodions Kurucs (+20)

Biggest Falls: Jerome Robinson (-15), Donte DiVincenzo (-12), Grayson Allen (-9)

Fell Out of First Round: Anfernee Simons, Moritz Wagner, Robert Williams, Jacob Evans, Dzanan Musa