Welcome to double-take week.
Looking at the Fanatics Week 4 odds board this week, there are plenty of lines where you just need to take a second glance to make sure your eyes aren’t deceiving you.
So it’s imperative to take extra time this week when considering a Survivor Pool pick.
Consider that the Steelers, Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Chiefs, and Lions are all road favorites this week.
Pittsburgh is a -2.5 road favorite over the Browns despite Cleveland owning the same record (2-1) as Pittsburgh, and with Pittsburgh just two weeks removed from putting up a measly 3 points at New England.
The Cardinals, who entered the season with the lowest win total projection in the NFL, are a road favorite against a team coached by John Harbaugh.
The Rams are just 1-2 on the season and are going into one of the more hostile environments in the league, as they’re at Philly. Yet, LA is favored by a full field goal.
Green Bay has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL. The Packers’ pre-season win total projection was 10.5. It is now just 7.5 at Fanatics following losses to the Vikings and Falcons. The only win thus far for Matt LaFleur’s squad was a 20-17 overtime victory over the Jets. Still, the Packers find themselves as a -3.5 road favorite this week over a team that was the favorite to win its division at the start of the season in the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs are 3-0, but it’s a soft 3-0, for sure. Kansas City needed overtime at home to defeat the Colts, and they beat the Dolphins (who are looking like the worst team in the league) last week. Kansas City is a -4.5 road favorite this week against an undefeated Raiders team.
The Lions are 2-1, with wins over the Saints and Jets, and a loss to the Bills. Detroit’s defense is the worst in the NFL as it is allowing 31.7 points per game. Still, Detroit is a full field goal favorite at 1-2 Carolina.
NFL Survivor Pool Week 4 implied probabilities
Here is a look at the NFL Week 4 implied probabilities for all of the favorites at Fanatics markets.
- Titans at Ravens: Ravens 86%
- Dolphins at Vikings: Vikings 84%
- Chargers at Seahawks: Seahawks 75%
- Patriots at Bills: Bills 74%
- Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs 66%
- Lions at Panthers: Lions 65%
- Colts at Commanders: Colts 64%
- Packers at Buccaneers: Packers 63%
- Jets at Bears: Bears 63%
- Rams at Eagles: Rams 61%
- Cowboys at Texans: Texans 60%
- Steelers at Browns: Steelers 58%
- Jaguars at Bengals: Bengals 58%
- Broncos at 49ers: 49ers 57%
- Falcons at Saints: Saints 57%
- Cardinals at Giants: Cardinals 56%
Titans at Ravens
The Ravens have the highest implied win probability at Fanatics Markets this week at 86 percent. Baltimore has had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL thus far, as it has played the Colts in Indy (41-23 Ravens win), the Saints at home (24-17 loss), and the Cowboys at home (34-31 win).
Lamar Jackson and Co. are home once again this week, hosting the 0-3 Titans. Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 12.3 points per game, which is third-worst in the NFL.
Dolphins at Vikings
A popular Survivor Pool strategy is to identify the worst team in the NFL and pick against them every week. Miami is that sad-sack team for many as it certainly looks like it already has its eyes fixed on next April’s NFL Draft. The Dolphins have lost to the Raiders (27-13), 49ers (35-13), and Chiefs (24-10) thus far.
The Vikings are on the opposite end of the spectrum, sitting pretty at 3-0 with wins over of the Packers (39-22), Bears (9-3), and Bucs (23-16).
Chargers at Seahawks
It’s last-gasp time for the Chargers, who are still in search of their first win of the season. The final scores of the Chargers’ games thus far have looked eerily similar as they lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, and 24-16 to the Bills.
Seattle will be in a foul mood as it was upset by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders last week.
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