The Denver Nuggets’ 2026 offseason has featured a stalemate with restricted free agent Peyton Watson, among several other rumors, including a link to free agent LeBron James. Coming off an impressive season where he averaged 14.6 points and 4.9 rebounds across 40 starts and 54 total games, the 23-year-old two-way wing has played his way into a big payday. However, three weeks into July, Watson remains unsigned with contract negotiations completely stalled. As Denver sorts out its salary cap plan, there have also been rumors of a potential sign-and-trade, but only a few teams make sense financially.
High Asking Prices and Bidding Wars
With negotiations between the Nuggets and Watson stalled, interest from rival franchises has been a common topic. As highlighted by Mile High Sports, a potential bidding war could come to fruition, with the Los Angeles Clippers, Atlanta Hawks, and Milwaukee Bucks all exploring sign-and-trade possibilities for Watson.
However, acquiring Watson won't come cheap. NBA insiders Marc Stein and Jake Fischer report that Denver's asking price in any sign-and-trade is steep. This isn’t all that surprising, but anything resembling a deal featuring two first-round picks seems like a tall ask from Denver. Considering the Nuggets hold a fair amount of control here, a team would need to bring an offer that persuades Denver to make the move. Otherwise, Watson's future remains one of the biggest dominoes left in the NBA offseason.
The Christian Braun Benchmark
A primary sticking point in negotiations appears to stem from the five-year, $125 million extension Denver gave guard Christian Braun last fall. According to reports from Sports Illustrated, Watson’s camp believes he deserves an annual average value higher than Braun’s $25 million per year.
While Nuggets leadership seemingly values Watson’s long-term ceiling, the front office is rightfully torn over whether to add another deal like Braun’s. The resulting price gap has created a tough negotiation climate, drawing direct comparisons to Jonathan Kuminga’s lengthy holdout with the Golden State Warriors last summer.
Second-Apron Tax Nightmare
One of the biggest salary cap issues not only for Denver but across the league is the dreaded second-apron. Re-signing Watson to a contract averaging anything around $25 million per year would trigger a luxury tax penalty, an area they obviously desperately want to avoid.
This has led to various reports and rumors this offseason, including Denver exploring trading Cameron Johnson’s $23 million expiring deal, but HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported that the front office has since rebuffed trade inquiries in order to run back their core. Without a salary dump, Denver must either accept a monumental tax bill or risk losing Watson altogether via a sign-and-trade deal.
One interesting note, however, is that the Nuggets also find themselves in a tough position with several teams in both conferences improving this offseason. In turn, the Nuggets hold just the 11th-best odds to win the NBA title next year, at +2500 on Fanatics.
Complex Bets is the premier destination for the intersection of sports, culture, and fandom, featuring original programming for the modern bettor and trader. Join our community of over 1 million fans by following @complexbets on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X, and subscribe on YouTube for exclusive storytelling across sports and prediction markets.
